It's Only July

Remember a few weeks back when, despite seemingly everything going my way as a Cubs fan, my neuroses and insecurity still managed to bubble up, thoroughly ruining any enjoyment I fully deserved to enjoy?

Dammit, do I hate being right.

As of this writing, the Cubs are going into the All-Star break having just narrowly avoided a sweep in Pittsburgh, which happened to end a five-game losing streak (which would've been a nine-gamer if the Reds had started last Monday's rally a bit sooner). That caps off a 10-17 record dating back to June 13th, a month that includes getting swept by the Cardinals at home and a particularly humiliating four-game sweep at New York. And, yeah, they're still seven games up in the division, with the second best record in baseball. But this is where they're sitting after a 43-18 start. And yet... maybe we're just spoiled following that historically notable start. Is this little more than an extended slump? Or something more horrifying?

A lot of this is nothing more than the natural neurosis of being a Cubs fan. But precisely because this year was supposed to be the Season of Destiny, it needs to be broken down, if only to explore and understand the demons we're currently dealing with. I usually like to start with the bad news, and then see how if the good balances it out.

The bad news:

• The pitching staff, Arrieta included, turned mortal sometime after Memorial Day. Remember last year, when Arrieta's Cy Young season was being lauded in particular because he had never pitched that many innings before? 229 innings in 2015 after never having pitched more than 156, only breaking 100 four times in seven seasons. And then, free to let fly all year, he turned into a beast. At this point, you obviously worry about how that workload affects him going forward. So when he starts to show a little wear midway into his post-Cy Young year, it feels as though his arm has literally fallen off. All because his ERA isn't below 2.00 anymore (count a vote for us being spoiled).
• The break that the All-Star Game is supposed to provide is lost because the Cubs have seven guys going to San Diego (yes, I share some responsibility for that, you're welcome) and if the National League gets slaughtered, everyone in baseball will know how vulnerable this once indomitable Cubs team is. 
• The spate of injuries (and injury scares) starting with Schwarber's ACL has been... troubling? That's probably a strong word. The DL seems a lot longer than it actually is, at least it did to me. But when a team is already struggling and you get yet another mobile update saying that Zobrist or Bryant (or both) have been taken out of the game, it doesn't engender a lot of confidence. Which leads me to my final negative... 
• Us. You don't have to travel too far to find Cubs fans bitching about this skid. Maybe it feels like we've deserved the chance to moan, but recall that we've created needlessly oppressive atmospheres before. Too many Cubs fans aren't reflective enough to understand how much harder we make an already difficult task. 

In point of fact, each of these bad news bullet points comes back to how we as fans interpret them. Taken one by one, they're really not too bad (and several will be rebutted in the good news section below), but when they add up and impact a team that we all thought was headed for '27 Yankees status, it's hard to see through the resulting fog. So let's turn to...

The good news:

• As stated, the Cubs are still seven games up in the division. Sure, it was more fun to be fifteen games up, but apparently neither the Pirates nor the Cardinals have been interested in taking advantage of the opportunity that's been dropped in their laps. And if that gap narrows further, you know what's more fun than throttling the rest of the division all season long? A year-end divisional race that keeps your team loose and ready for October. 
• The trade deadline looms and the Cubs have some very recent and painful experience with teams that explode after making the right deals. If we're really good, maybe Baseball Santa will leave us with a whole new bullpen. Except for Rondon. Leave Rondon alone, he's fine. 
• Hector Rondon. 
• A chunk of this fall-off is the result of injuries (and injury scares), Fowler most notably. Those guys will come back. Too many late season collapses happen because guys are tired and, as it stands now, a lot of guys will be well-rested. 
• Meanwhile, Maddon is a guy who knows how to adjust. And his teams historically do better in the second half.
• Relatedly, this is the kind of time that a great start is supposed to buy--a chance to see what's on the horizon. Simultaneously, it offers a couple of months for slumping starters to work through whatever's causing them to blow games in innovative and interesting ways. What else is July for?
• After all, this slump could've happened in September. Then we'd be right to panic. There's a lot--perhaps too much--baseball left to play. 

So repeat after me: It's only July.